Sciences and Exploration Directorate

Ricardo Todling

(RESEARCH AST, METEOROLOGICAL STUDIES)

Ricardo Todling's Contact Card & Information.
Email: ricardo.todling@nasa.gov
Phone: 301.614.6171
Org Code: 610.1
Address:
NASA/GSFC
Mail Code 610.1
Greenbelt, MD 20771
Employer:
NASA

Brief Bio


Dr. Ricardo Todling is a Research Meteorologist working 

for NASA at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO; former Data Assimilation Office, DAO). He started at NASA/DAO under a National Research Council fellowship in 1992, followed by a fellowship from the Universities Space Research Association in 1994, and subsequently joined Science Applications International Corporation as a U.S. government contractor. Dr. Todling formally joined NASA as a civil servant in 2009.


In 1996 Dr. Todling became directly involved in the core data assimilation development at DAO. He was a key developer of the first DAO near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS) built in support of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program in the late 1990's. Since then, he has been leading the atmospheric analysis group and the maintenance, development and testing of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric DAS. In his capacity, Dr. Todling provides support to NASA Instrument Teams for validation and calibration of their products; he has also contributed significantly to the development and deployment of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and its follow up MERRA-2. 


Over the years, Dr. Todling has served as liaison between NASA/GMAO and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), particularly contributing to the development of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system: a software component of the assimilation systems of GMAO, NCEP, and various partners of the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). Additionally, Dr. Todling has led the development of the GEOS Hybrid four-dimensional Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System, and its 

adjoint-based tool for assessment of the impact of observations in short-range forecasts. 


Currently, Dr. Todling's primary focus is in the transition of the GSI-based system to a JEDI-based system. Beyond its core duties, Dr. Todling has ongoing collaborations and research to: (i) investigate the effect of volcanic aerosols in reanalysis; (ii) evaluate the potential of a proactive quality control strategy to improve GEOS forecasts; (iii) extend GEOS to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere and generate a reanalysis going up to 150 km; and (iv) explore machine learning methodologies to improve the treatment of sea surface temperature and sea ice in GEOS forecasts, as well as to replace the GEOS ensemble used in the hybrid system with a surrogate perturbation model..

Research Interests


Data Assimilation Techniques

Earth Science: Novel Data Analysis Development

Dr. Todling has a continued interest in data assimilation techniques. He has started his career looking into novel, advanced, and practically feasible data assimilation methodologies. He has worked to develop and implement the current near-real-time hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation strategy used in the high-resolution GEOS atmospheric system and corresponding slightly lower resolution reanalysis system. Dr. Todling is presently working in collaboration with Universities and other National Laboratories to use machine learning approaches to improve GEOS predictions and expedite its underlying ensemble framework.


Impact of Observations in Short-Term Forecasts

Earth Science: Atmospheric Measurement

Dr. Todling has had a continued interest in developing methodologies to assess the benefit of atmospheric observations in the assimilation cycle and their impact to reducing errors in short-range forecasts. He has been the key developer of GMAO's Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) tool: an adjoint-based technique for efficient observation assessment. He has been critical of limitations of such techniques and has worked to establish less strict alternative methodologies.


Enhanced Use of Satellite Observations

Earth Science: Remote Sensing

Dr. Todling has been interested in ways to make better use of observations both conventional and satellite radiance. He has introduced a technique to take into account inter-channel correlated errors in the variational methodology employed in the present GEOS near-real-time assimilation system. His implementation has also aided NOAA/EMC in its national operational assimilation system. Dr. Todling has an ongoing collaboration to implement and test an effective, adjoint-based, proactive quality control procedure to make better use of observations in general and of satellite data in particular.


Extending GEOS to the Lower Thermosphere

Heliophysics: Analysis

Recently, Dr. Todling has gained an interest in studying the effects of high-altitude mechanisms influencing core atmospheric events such as MJO, QBO and others. He is now involved in a partnership with a Goddard Heliophysics group to extend GEOS and its underlying data assimilation system from its present 80 km top to about 150 km; the lower-thermosphere. The initial goal of this collaboration is to produce a reanalysis dataset similar to MERRA-2 - but shorter in extent - that provides the means for further enhancement of our understanding of such relevant processes.

Current Projects


Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Analysis


Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Data Assimilation

Analysis


Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact

Analysis

Positions/Employment


Research Meteorologist

National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Goddard Space Flight Center

2009 - Present


Senior Research Scientist

Science Applications International Corporation - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

1996 - 2009


Visiting Research Scientist

Universities Research Association - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

1994 - 1996


Post-Doctoral Reseacher

National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

1992 - 1994

Teaching Experience


Foundations of Atmospheric Data Assimilation.  September 22-26, 1997: National Laboratory for Computational Sciences, Rio de Janeiro.


Estimation Theory and Atmospheric Data Assimilation. Winter 1997, semester course at University of Maryland's Meteorology Department.

Estimation Theory and Atmospheric Data Assimilation. January 22 to February 2, 1996, Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Teaching Assistant, from March to December 1984, at the Mathematics Department at Pontificia Universidade Catolica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
 

Education


1992 Ph. D. Atmospheric Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, USA

1990 M. Sc. Atmospheric Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, USA

1986 M. Sc. Physics, Pontificia Universidade Catolica, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

1983 B. Sc. Chemistry, Pontificia Universidade Catolica, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Awards


2014 - American Meteorological Society, Monthly Weather Review: For providing thorough, insightful, and high-quality reviews of manuscripts.


2010 - Group Achievement, NASA, for delivery of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), a new meteorological analysis placing NASA's EOS data in a climate context.


2007 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/SAIC, for extraordinary accomplishment in the rapid development of a 4DVAR data assimilation system that includes advanced extensions of a weak-constraint formulation and built-in adjoint capability.


2005 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/SAIC, for outstanding work in integrating the GEOS-5 DAS to meet multiple high-priority GMAO objectives.

2004 - Group Achievement, NASA/SAIC, in recognition of the hard work, dedication, and outstanding teamwork in assembling components for the GEOS-5 DAS, and undertaking the initial tests on an accelerated cycle to transition to operations.


2003 -  Group Achievement, NASA/SAIC, in recognition of the successful developments, evaluation and operational transition of an improved GEOS-4 analysis system in support of CERES and other GMAO customers. Group award.

2002 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/SAIC, for the many scientific contributions to several areas of critical development and cutting-edge research, including retrospective data assimilation, analysis error estimation, and forecast bias correction.

2002 - Group Achievement, NASA/SAIC, for outstanding work on developing the adjoint of the finite-volume GCM and providing invaluable support for adjoint-based scientific applications. Joint award with R. Giering and T. Kaminski.


2001 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/GSC, for work in developing an MPI version of the GEOS DAS, and for integrating various multi-disciplinary science development paths into the DAO's operational system. Joint award with L. L. Takacs.

2000 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/GSC, for scientific achievement in developing and implementing a moisture bias correction procedure in the NASA/GEOS Terra data assimilation system. Joint award with D. P. Dee.

1998 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, for system engineering and integration in the migration of GEOS data assimilation system to the Origin 2000 platforms.


1997 -  Outstanding Performance, NASA/GSC, for leadership during the first migration of GEOS DAS to parallel computing architecture, as a crucial step toward the DAO's operational support of EOS AM1.


1994 - Outstanding Performance, NASA/Universities Space Research Association, for developing and testing advanced data assimilation schemes.


1991 - Outstanding Performance, Associated Students UCLA, in recognition of exceptional achievement as a student employee.

Grants


Exploring Model Error Formulations in the GEOS Weak-Constraint 4DVAR. - NASA - Awarded:


Dates: 2009-10-01  - 2013-09-30


A Next--generation Integrated Earth System Analysis Coupling between the Ocean and Atmosphere. - NASA - Awarded:


Dates: 2010-10-01  - 2015-09-30


Error Covariance Diagnosis and Forecast Impact Estimation in NASA GEOS DAS.

Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program - NASA (Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program) - Awarded: 2013-10-01


Dates: 2013-10-01  - 2016-09-30

Publications


Refereed

2023. "The GMAO Hybrid 4D-EnVar Observing System Simulation Experiment framework." Monthly Weather Review 151 1717-1734 [10.1175/mwr-d-22-0254.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2023. "A Weakly-Coupled Land Surface Analysis With SMAP Radiance Assimilation Improves GEOS Medium-Range Forecasts of Near-Surface Air Temperature and Humidity." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149 1867-1889 [10.1002/qj.4486] [Journal Article/Letter]

2022. "Assessment of Geo-Kompsat-2A Atmospheric Motion Vector Data and Its Assimilation Impact in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System." Remote Sensing 14 (21): 5287 [10.3390/rs14215287] [Journal Article/Letter]

2022. "The relationship between two methods for estimating uncertainties in data assimilation." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 148 (747): 2942-2954 [10.1002/qj.4343] [Journal Article/Letter]

2022. "Observation Impact and Information Retention in the Lower Troposphere of the GMAO GEOS Data Assimilation System." Monthly Weather Review [10.1175/MWR-D-21-0334.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2021. "Assimilation of SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations in the GEOS Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation System." IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing 14 10628-10643 [10.1109/jstars.2021.3118595] [Journal Article/Letter]

2020. "Evaluation of adjoint‐based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society qj.3909 [10.1002/qj.3909] [Journal Article/Letter]

2020. "The Framework for Assimilating All-Sky GPM Microwave Imager Brightness Temperature Data in the NASA GEOS Data Assimilation System." Monthly Weather Review 148 2433-2455 [10.1175/MWR-D-19-0100.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2020. "A Brief Assessment of the Impact of Nearly 40 Years of Assimilated Observations Over the Amazon Basin." Earth and Space Science 7 (3): [10.1029/2019ea000779] [Journal Article/Letter]

2020. "Assessing the impact of observations in a multi-year reanalysis." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 147 (727): 724-747 [10.1002/qj.3705] [Journal Article/Letter]

2018. "The Stability of Incremental Analysis Update." Monthly Weather Review 146 (10): 3259-3275 [10.1175/MWR-D-18-0117.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2017. "The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)." Journal of Climate 30 5419–5454 [10.1175/jcli-d-16-0758.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2017. "Assimilation for skin SST in the NASA GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143 (703): 1032-1046 [10.1002/qj.2988] [Journal Article/Letter]

2016. "Maintaining atmospheric mass and water balance in reanalyses." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 1565-1573 [10.1002/qj.2763] [Journal Article/Letter]

2015. "Progress and challenges in short- to medium-range coupled prediction." Journal of Operational Oceanography 8 (sup2): s239-s258 [10.1080/1755876x.2015.1049875] [Journal Article/Letter]

2015. "A lag-1 smoother approach to system-error estimation: sequential method." Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 141 (690): 1502-1513 [10.1002/qj.2460] [Journal Article/Letter]

2015. "A complementary note to ‘A lag-1 smoother approach to system-error estimation’: the intrinsic limitations of residual diagnostics." Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 141 (692): 2917-2922 [10.1002/qj.2546] [Journal Article/Letter]

2013. "Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact." Mon. Weather Rev. 141 (5): 1484-1505 [10.1175/MWR-D-12-00100.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2013. "Preconditioning of variational data assimilation and the use of a bi-conjugate gradient method." Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 139 (672): 731-741 [10.1002/qj.1997] [Journal Article/Letter]

2013. "Development and validation of observing-system simulation experiments at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office." Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 139 (674): 1162-1178 [10.1002/qj.2027] [Journal Article/Letter]

2011. "MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications." J. Climate 24 (14): 3624-3648 [10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2010. "Adjoint sensitivity of the model forecast to data assimilation system error covariance parameters." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 136 (653): 2000-2012 [10.1002/qj.693] [Journal Article/Letter]

2010. "The THORPEX Observation Impact Intercomparison Experiment." Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 (11): 4009-4025 [10.1175/2010MWR3393.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2009. "Adjoint Estimation of the Variation in Model Functional Output due to the Assimilation of Data." Mon. Weather Rev. 137 (5): 1705-1716 [10.1175/2008MWR2659.1] [Journal Article/Letter]

2007. "General characteristics of stratospheric singular vectors." Meteorol. Z. 16 (6): 621-634 [10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0245] [Journal Article/Letter]

2007. "Ice polar stratospheric clouds detected from assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder data." Geophys. Res. Lett 34 (16): L16802 [10.1029/2007GL029415] [Journal Article/Letter]

2007. "Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation System." Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 85A [Journal Article/Letter]

2005. "Impact of atmospheric infrared sounder observations on weather forecasts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 86 (11): 109-116 [10.1029/2005EO110002] [Journal Article/Letter]

2005. "AIRS hyperspectral data improves southern hemisphere forecasts." Austral Met Mag 54 57-60 [Journal Article/Letter]

2005. "Impact of atmospheric infrared sounder observations on weather forecasts." Eos 86 109-116 [Journal Article/Letter]

2003. "The GEOS-3 Retrospective Data Assimilation System: The 6-Hour Lag Case." Mon. Weather Rev. 131 (9): 2129-2150 [10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2129:TGRDAS>2.0.CO;2] [Journal Article/Letter]

2001. "An adaptive buddy check for observational quality control." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127 (577): 2451-2471 [10.1002/qj.49712757714] [Journal Article/Letter]

2000. "Data Assimilation in the Presence of Forecast Bias: The GEOS Moisture Analysis." Monthly Weather Review 128 (9): 3268-3282 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3268:] [Journal Article/Letter]

2000. "Low-dimensional representation of error covariance." Tellus 52A (5): 533-553 [Journal Article/Letter]

2000. "Conditioning of the Stable, Discrete-Time Lyapunov Operator." SIAM. J. Matrix Anal. & Appl. 22 (1): 56-65 [10.1137/S0895479899354822] [Journal Article/Letter]

1998. "Suboptimal Schemes for Retrospective Data Assimilation Based on the Fixed-Lag Kalman Smoother." Monthly Weather Review 126 (8): 2274-2286 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2274:] [Journal Article/Letter]

1996. "Tracking Atmospheric Instabilities with the Kalman Filter. Part II: Two-Layer Results." Monthly Weather Review 124 (10): 2340-2352 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2340:] [Journal Article/Letter]

1996. "Approximate data assimilation schemes for stable and unstable dynamics." JOURNAL-METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN SERIES 2 74 63--75 [Journal Article/Letter]

1994. "Suboptimal Schemes for Atmospheric Data Assimilation Based on the Kalman Filter." Monthly Weather Review 122 (11): 2530-2557 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<2530:] [Journal Article/Letter]

1994. "A fixed-lag Kalman smoother for retrospective data assimilation." Monthly Weather Review 122 (12): 2838-2867 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<2838:] [Journal Article/Letter]

1994. "Tracking Atmospheric Instabilities with the Kalman Filter. Part 1: Methodology and One-Layer Resultst." Monthly Weather Review 122 (1): 183-204 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0183:] [Journal Article/Letter]

Non-Refereed

2018. "The GMAO Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System: Version 2.0." NASA/TM-2018-104606 50 184pp [Full Text] [Report]

2018. "Preliminary evaluation of influence of aerosols on the simulation of brightness temperature in the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System." NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA/TM-2018-104606 49 44pp [Full Text] [Report]

2017. "Description of the GMAO OSSE for Weather Analysis Software Package: Version 3." NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA/TM-2017-104606 48 156 pp. [Full Text] [Report]

2016. "Estimation of the Ocean Skin Temperature using the NASA GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System." NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA/TM-2016-10460 44 88pp [Report]

2015. "Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance Within Reanalysis." Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation (NASA TM-–2014-104606) 37 39pp [Full Text] [Report]

1999. "Estimation Theory and Foundations of Atmospheric Data Assimilation ." NASA DAO Office Notes 1999 (01): 187 [Report]

1997. "Documentation of the Tangent Linear and Adjoint Models of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Moisture Parameterization Package of the NASA GEOS-1 GCM (Version 5.2)." NASA/Tech. Memo. 104606 11 40 [https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Yang131.pdf] [Report]