Brief Bio

Siegfried Schubert’s research interests include climate variability and predictability, droughts, the hydrological cycle, extreme weather and climate events, and reanalysis. Dr. Schubert has authored or co-authored over 150 research articles, served as an editor of the Journal of Climate, and helped to organize two special collections of the Journal of Climate on drought. He was a member of the international CLIVAR scientific steering group, and as part of the leadership of the WCRP drought interest group, he helped organize two international workshops to assess current understanding of drought world-wide with the goal of developing a global drought information system (GDIS). As the lead of a NOAA drought task force, he helped to coordinate and facilitate drought research projects nationally, including the development of a special collection of the Journal of Hydrometeorology on the topic of drought monitoring and prediction.

Selected Publications

Refereed

DeAngelis, A. M., S. D. Schubert, Y. Chang, et al. Y.-K. Lim, R. D. Koster, H. Wang, and A. Collow. 2023. "Dynamical drivers of the exceptional warmth over Siberia during the spring of 2020." Journal of Climate (Accepted) [10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0387.1]

Koster, R. D., A. M. DeAngelis, Q. Liu, S. D. Schubert, and A. M. Molod. 2022. "The Simulation and Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables: Insights from a Simple Water Balance Model." Journal of Hydrometeorology 23 (11): 1719-1736 [10.1175/jhm-d-22-0050.1]

Dezfuli, A., K. G. Horton, B. Zuckerberg, S. D. Schubert, and M. G. Bosilovich. 2022. "Continental Patterns of Bird Migration Linked to Climate Variability." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103 (2): E536-E547 [10.1175/bams-d-21-0220.1]

Schubert, S. D., Y. Chang, A. M. Deangelis, et al. R. D. Koster, Y.-K. Lim, and H. Wang. 2022. "Exceptional warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January through March of 2020: The roles of unforced and forced modes of atmospheric variability." Journal of Climate 35 (8): 2565-2584 [https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0291.1]

Collow, A., N. P. Thomas, M. G. Bosilovich, et al. Y.-K. Lim, S. D. Schubert, and R. D. Koster. 2022. "Seasonal variability in the mechanisms behind the 2020 Siberian heatwaves." Journal of Climate 35 (10): 3075-3090 [https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0432.1]

Koster, R. D., A. M. DeAngelis, S. D. Schubert, and A. M. Molod. 2021. "Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization." Journal of Hydrometeorology 22 (10): 2505-2519 [10.1175/jhm-d-21-0022.1]

Schubert, S. D., Y. Chang, A. M. DeAngelis, H. Wang, and R. D. Koster. 2021. "On the Development and Demise of the Fall 2019 Southeast U.S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme Positive IOD." Journal of Climate 34 (5): 1701-1723 [10.1175/jcli-d-20-0428.1]

Lim, Y.-K., S. D. Schubert, Y. Chang, and H. Wang. 2020. "The boreal winter El Nino precipitation response over North America: Insights into why January is more difficult to predict than February." Journal of Climate 33 (20): 8651-8670 [10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0841.1]

Koster, R. D., S. D. Schubert, A. M. DeAngelis, A. M. Molod, and S. P. Mahanama. 2020. "Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts." Journal of Hydrometeorology 21 (8): 1705-1722 [10.1175/jhm-d-20-0007.1]

DeAngelis, A. M., H. Wang, R. D. Koster, et al. S. D. Schubert, Y. Chang, and J. Marshak. 2020. "Prediction Skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains Flash Drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Models." Journal of Climate 33 (14): 6229-6253 [10.1175/jcli-d-19-0863.1]

Schubert, S. D., Y. Chang, H. Wang, R. D. Koster, and A. M. Molod. 2019. "A Systematic Approach to Assessing the Sources and Global Impacts of Errors in Climate Models." Journal of Climate 32 (23): 8301-8321 [10.1175/jcli-d-19-0189.1]

Koster, R. D., S. D. Schubert, H. Wang, S. P. Mahanama, and A. M. DeAngelis. 2019. "Flash Drought as Captured by Reanalysis Data: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Evapotranspiration." Journal of Hydrometeorology 20 (6): 1241-1258 [10.1175/jhm-d-18-0242.1]

Wang, H., S. D. Schubert, R. D. Koster, and Y. Chang. 2019. "Phase Locking of the Boreal Summer Atmospheric Response to Dry Land Surface Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere." Journal of Climate 32 (4): 1081-1099 [10.1175/jcli-d-18-0240.1]

Wang, H., S. D. Schubert, R. D. Koster, and Y. Chang. 2019. "Attribution of the 2017 Northern High Plains Drought." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100 (1): S25-S29 [10.1175/bams-d-18-0115.1]

Lim, Y.-K., S. D. Schubert, R. M. Kovach, A. M. Molod, and S. Pawson. 2018. "The roles of climate change and climate variability in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season." Scientific Reports 8 [10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5]

Lim, Y.-K., S. D. Schubert, Y. Chang, A. M. Molod, and S. Pawson. 2018. "The impact of SST-forced and unforced teleconnections on 2015/16 El Nino winter precipitation over the western United States." Journal of Climate 31 (15): 5825-5844 [10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0218.1]

Schubert, S., Y. Chang, H. Wang, R. Koster, and M. Suarez. 2016. "A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity." J. Climate 29 (21): 7869-7887 [10.1175/jcli-d-15-0673.1]

Lim, Y.-K., S. D. Schubert, O. Reale, et al. A. M. Molod, M. J. Suarez, and B. M. Auer. 2016. "Large-scale controls on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity on seasonal time scales." Journal of Climate 29 6727-6749 [10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0098.1]

Schubert, S. D., R. E. Stewart, H. Wang, et al. M. Barlow, E. H. Berbery, W. Cai, M. P. Hoerling, K. K. Kanikicharla, R. D. Koster, B. Lyon, A. Mariotti, C. R. Mechoso, O. V. Müller, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, R. Seager, S. I. Senevirante, L. Zhang, and T. Zhou. 2016. "Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits." J. Climate 29 (11): 3989-4019 [10.1175/jcli-d-15-0452.1]

Seager, R., M. Hoerling, S. Schubert, et al. H. Wang, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, J. Nakamura, and N. Henderson. 2015. "Causes of the 2011–14 California Drought*." J. Climate 28 (18): 6997-7024 [10.1175/jcli-d-14-00860.1]

Wood, E. F., S. D. Schubert, A. W. Wood, et al. C. D. Peters-Lidard, K. C. Mo, A. Mariotti, and R. S. Pulwarty. 2015. "Prospects for Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring, and Prediction." Journal of Hydrometeorology 16 (4): 1636-1657 [Full Text (Link)] [10.1175/JHM-D-14-0164.1]

Koster, R., Y. Chang, and S. D. Schubert. 2014. "A mechanism for land-atmosphere feedback involving planetary wave structures." J. Climate 27 9290-9301 [10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00315.1]

Wang, H., and S. Schubert. 2014. "The Precipitation Response over the Continental United States to Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures." J. Climate 27 (13): 5036-5055 [10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00453.1]

Wang, H., S. D. Schubert, R. Koster, et al. R. D. Koster, Y.-G. Ham, and M. J. Suarez. 2014. "On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts." J. Hydrometeor. 15 (3): 1255-1273 [10.1175/JHM-D-13-069.1]

Schubert, S. D., H. Wang, R. D. Koster, and M. J. Suarez. 2014. "Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts." J. Climate 27 (9): 3169-3207 [10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00360.1]

Kirtman, B. P., D. Min, J. M. Infanti, et al. I. J. Kinter, D. A. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Pena Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, M. K. Tippett, A. G. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. D. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y.-K. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. J. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. F. Wood. 2014. "The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc 95 (4): 585-601 [10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1]

Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, et al. R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. D. Schubert, and R. Seager. 2014. "Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc 95 (2): 269-282 [10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00055.1]

Ham, Y.-G., M. M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, et al. Y. V. Vikhliaev, B. Zhao, J. Marshak, G. R. Vernieres, and S. D. Schubert. 2014. "Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system." Clim Dyn 42 (1-2): 1-20 [10.1007/s00382-013-1858-x]

Schubert, S. D., and Y.-K. Lim. 2013. "Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data." Hydrologic Extremes in a Changing Climate - Detection Analysis & Uncertainty 65 pp423 [Full Text (Link)]

Mariotti, A., S. D. Schubert, K. Mo, et al. C. D. Peters-Lidard, A. Wood, R. Pulwarty, J. Huang, and D. Barrie. 2013. "Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring, and Prediction." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94 (12): ES186–ES188 [10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00248.1]

Chang, Y., S. Schubert, and M. Suarez. 2012. "Attribution of the Extreme U.S. East Coast Snowstorm Activity of 2010." J.Climate 25 3771-3791

Ham, Y., S. D. Schubert, and Y. Chang. 2012. "Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter." J Climate 25 (14): 4932-4945 [10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00344.1]

Ham, Y., M. M. Rienecker, S. D. Schubert, et al. S. Marshak, S. Marshak, and S.-C. Yang. 2012. "The decadal modulation of coupled bred vectors." Geophy Res Lett 39 (20): L20712 [10.1029/2012GL053719]

Rienecker, M. M., M. J. Suarez, R. Gelaro, et al. R. Todling, J. Bacmeister, E. Liu, M. G. Bosilovich, S. D. Schubert, L. Takacs, G.-K. Kim, S. Bloom, J. Chen, D. Collins, A. Conaty, A. da Silva, W. Gu, J. Joiner, R. D. Koster, R. Lucchesi, A. Molod, T. Owens, S. Pawson, P. Pegion, C. R. Redder, R. H. Reichle, F. R. Robertson, A. G. Ruddick, M. Sienkiewicz, and J. Woollen. 2011. "MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications." J. Climate 24 (14): 3624-3648 [10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1]

Lim, Y.-K., and S. D. Schubert. 2011. "The Impact of ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on Winter Temperature Extremes in the Southeast United States." Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L15706 [doi:10.1029/2011GL048283]

Schubert, S., H. Wang, and M. Suarez. 2011. "Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves." J. Climate 24 4773–4792

Wang, H., S. Schubert, M. Suarez, and R. D. Koster. 2010. "The Physical Mechanisms by Which the Leading Patterns of SST Variability Impact U.S. Precipitation." Journal of Climate 23 (7): 1815-1836 [10.1175/2009JCLI3188.1]

Lee, M.-I., I. Choi, W.-K. Tao, S. D. Schubert, and I.-S. Kang. 2009. "Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective." Climate Dynamics 34 (2-3): 419-437 [10.1007/s00382-009-0531-x]

Wang, H., S. D. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, et al. J. Chen, M. Hoerling, A. Kumar, and P. Pegion. 2009. "Attribution of the seasonality and regionality in climate trends over the United States during 1950-2000." J. Climate 2571-2590

Weaver, S. J., S. Schubert, and H. Wang. 2009. "Warm season variations in the low-level circulation and precipitation over the central U.S. in observations, AMIP simulations, and idealized SST experiments,." J. Climate 22 5401–5420

Koster, R. D., H. Wang, S. D. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, and S. P. Mahanama. 2009. "Drought-Induced Warming in the Continental United States under Different SST Regimes." Journal of Climate 22 5385-5400 [DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3075.1]

Wu, M.-L. C., O. Reale, S. D. Schubert, et al. M. J. Suarez, R. D. Koster, and P. J. Pegion. 2009. "African Easterly Jet: Structure and Maintenance." Journal of Climate 22 4459-4480 [DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2584.1]

Koster, R. D., S. D. Schubert, and M. J. Suarez. 2009. "Analyzing the Concurrence of Meteorological Droughts and Warm Periods, with Implications for the Determination of Evaporative Regime." Journal of Climate 22 3331-3341 [DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2718.1]

Schubert, S., D. Gutzler, H. Wang, et al. A. Dai, T. Delworth, C. Deser, K. Findell, R. Fu, W. Higgins, M. Hoerling, B. Kirtman, R. Koster, A. Kumar, D. Legler, D. Lettenmaier, B. Lyon, V. Magana, K. Mo, S. Nigam, P. Pegion, A. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, D. Rind, A. Ruiz-Barradas, J. Schemm, R. Seager, R. Stewart, M. Suarez, J. Syktus, M. Ting, C. Wang, S. Weaver, and N. Zeng. 2009. "A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results." Journal of Climate 22 (19): 5251-5272 [10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1]

Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. Bacmeister. 2008. "Potential Predictability of Long-Term Drought and Pluvial Conditions in the U.S. Great Plains." Journal of Climate 21 (4): 802-816 [10.1175/2007JCLI1741.1]

Koster, R., T. Bell, R. Reichle, M. Suarez, and S. Schubert. 2008. "Using Observed Spatial Correlation Structures to Increase the Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts." Mon. Wea. Rev. 136 (6): 1923-1930 [10.1175/2007MWR2255.1]

Lee, M.-I., S. D. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, T. Bell, and K.-M. Kim. 2007. "The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the NASA/NSIPP Atmospheric General Circulation Model." J. Geophys. Res. 112 D16111 [doi:10.1029/2006JD008346]

Schubert, S. D., R. D. Koster, M. Hoerling, et al. R. Seager, D. P. Lettenmaier, A. Kumar, and D. Gutzler. 2007. "Predicting drought on seasonal-to-decadal time scales." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88 1625-1630 [DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1625]

Lee, M., S. Schubert, M. Suarez, et al. I. Held, A. Kumar, T. Bell, J. Schemm, N. Lau, J. Ploshay, H. Kim, and S. Yoo. 2007. "Sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the AGCM simulations of warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation over the United States and northern Mexico." J Climate 20 (9): 1862-1881

Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, and S. D. Schubert. 2006. "Distinct hydrological signatures in observed historical temperature fields." Journal of Hydrometeorology 7 1061-1075 [DOI: 10.1175/JHM530.1]

Lin, J., G. N. Kiladis, B. E. Mapes, et al. K. M. Weickmann, K. R. Sperber, W. Lin, M. C. Wheeler, S. D. Schubert, A. Del Genio, L. J. Donner, S. Emori, J. Gueremy, F. Hourdin, P. J. Rasch, E. Roeckner, and J. F. Scinocca. 2006. "Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models. Part I: Convective Signals." J. Climate 19 (12): 2665-2690 [10.1175/JCLI3735.1]

Kumar, A., F. Yang, L. Goddard, and S. D. Schubert. 2004. "Differing trends in the tropical surface temperatures and precipitation over land and oceans." J Climate 17 (3): 653-664 [10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0653:DTITTS>2.0.CO;2]

Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister. 2004. "Causes of Long-Term Drought in the U.S. Great Plains." J. Climate 17 (3): 485-503 [10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0485:COLDIT>2.0.CO;2]

Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister. 2004. "On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl." Science 303 1855-1859 [DOI: 10.1126/science.1095048]

Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, M. A. Kistler, and A. Kumar. 2002. "Predictability of zonal means during boreal summer." J.Climate 15 420-434

Otterman, J., J. Angell, R. Atlas, et al. D. Bungato, S. D. Schubert, D. O. Starr, J. Susskind, and M.-L. C. Wu. 2002. "Advection from the north Atlantic as the forcing of winter effect over Europe." Geophys. Res. Lett 29 (8): 133-1-133-4 [10.1029/2001GL014187]

Otterman, J., R. Atlas, S. Chou, et al. J. C. Jusem, R. Pielke, R. Pielke, T. N. Chase, J. Rogers, G. L. Russell, S. D. Schubert, Y. C. Sud, and J. Terry. 2002. "Are stronger North-Atlantic southwesterlies the forcing to the late-winter warming in Europe?" Int. J. Climatol. 22 (6): 743-750 [10.1002/joc.681]

Otterman, J., K. J. Angell, J. Ardizzone, et al. R. Atlas, S. Schubert, D. Starr, and M. Wu. 2002. "North-Atlantic surface winds examined as the source of winter warming in Europe." Geophys Res Lett 29 (19): 1912 [10.1029/2002GL015256]

Schubert, S., and M. L. Wu. 2001. "Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoon winds." J. Climate 14 3173-3191.

Otterman, J., J. Ardizzone, R. Atlas, et al. D. Bungato, J. Cierniewski, J. Jusem, R. Przybylak, S. Schubert, D. Starr, J. Walczewski, and A. Wos. 2001. "The variability of winter air temperature in mid-latitude Europe." Geogr Polonica 74 67-77