CRITICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUBSTORM CYCLE IN EARTH'S MAGNETOTAIL Alex Klimas, NASA/GSFC The loading-unloading cycle is a fundamental feature of the substorm phenomenon. While clearly influenced by the variable solar wind, the cycle has its source in the plasma sheet, through transitions from stability to instability and back again. To understand the substorm cycle, these transitions must be understood within the context of a fast flow-driven eddy turbulent plasma sheet in which reconnection takes place in varying degrees throughout the cycle. The transitions of the substorm cycle are actually transitions from sporadic localized instability to global instability, and then back again. Further, the substorm cycle must be hysteretic; the threshold for transition into global activity must be higher than the threshold for transition back again. Only then, can a loading-unloading cycle develop. Within the context of the turbulent plasma sheet, what is the mechanism for producing hysteresis in the substorm cycle? Uritsky et al. (JGR, 2002; GRL, 2003), through analyses of POLAR UVI image data, have developed strong evidence for a reconnection based scale-free avalanching process in the plasma sheet. They have suggested that an avalanche of interacting local instabilities is responsible for the transition into global unloading at substorm onset. Klimas et al. (JGR, 2004) have studied a numerical driven current-sheet model that can evolve into a loading-unloading cycle and does exhibit scale-free avalanching that is similar to that implied by the UVI image analyses. It will be shown that the global loading-unloading cycle of this model is hysteretic, and that the source of this hysteresis is at the smallest scales in the model, where it is assumed. These results suggest that the global loading-unloading cycle of the magnetosphere is a direct consequence of hysteresis in the reconnection producing instability that resides in the plasma sheet at spatial and temporal scales less than ~1 RE and ~1-3 min, respectively. Alternatives that do not contradict the Uritsky et al. results are difficult to imagine.