Luke Oman, NASA GSFC Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory

Abstract: Climate models represent an excellent test bed to examine low probability but high impact events and scenarios. This talk will summarize work that I have been involved in that simulates the atmospheric response to extreme forcings of the Earth climate system. First, I will show the impact of extremely large sulfate aerosol loadings resulting from super-volcanic eruptions like Toba approximately 74,000 years ago. Second, I will discuss simulations of the black carbon aerosol impact on climate resulting from massive fires initiated by nuclear conflict scenarios. Third, I will present results from simulations of an unrestrained increase in chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) and its impact on the ozone layer, the so-called World Avoided by the Montreal Protocol. I will highlight some of the surprising findings and lessons learned from these simulations.