Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone
A NASA Workshop, May 22–24, 2012, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Climate model calculations performed in the 1980s predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would warm earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect (e.g., Manabe and Wetherald, 1975; Hansen et al., 1981; 1984). These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years (e.g., Stroeve et al., 2012; Screen and Simmonds, 2010). Nonetheless, climate models vary widely in their warming trajectories over the 21st century. In addition, a range of biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) warming could lead to widespread permafrost thaw, which could contribute around 90 ppm CO2 to the atmospheric CO2 burden by 2100 (Schaefer et al., 2011), and lead to significant changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ (e.g., Lawrence and Slater, 2005). However, the uncertainties associated with the BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system (PCS) models used to predict climate change.
A workshop was held at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, May 22–24, 2012, to assess the predictive capability of current Earth system models (ESMs), prioritize the critical science questions and make recommendations regarding new field experiments that would contribute to important improvements in model subcomponents.*
* from the Executive Summary in the Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic Boreal Zone NASA Workshop Report, Sellers, P., M. Rienecker, S.Frolking, and D. Randall, November 2012
• Presentation of Report – This summary of the workshop report was presented to NASA/HQ/SMD Program Managers, November 2012. Piers Sellers presented a shortened version at the December 2012 AGU.
Workshop Presentations
• Physical Climate System Overview – David Randall, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
• Biogeochemical Climate System – Steve Frolking, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire
• ABoVE – Scott Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center
• NGEE – Peter Thornton, ORNL Climate Change Science Institute
• ARCTAS – Daniel Jacob, Division of Engineering and Applied Science & Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University
• Report for NSF – Wieslaw Maslowski, Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School
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